So far we have predicted the election map 150 days out and 100 days out. Here is our prediction 50 days out.
When thinking about who I think will win each state I start with a prior of the 2016 result. If Trump won the state in 2016 then I start by assuming Trump will win it in 2020 and if Hillary Clinton won it in 2016 then I start by assuming Biden will win it in 2020. From there I look at the evidence at the state level– head to head polls, approval ratings, Senate and Governor race polls, among others. The evidence can either convince me that Trump/Biden will hold the state, Trump/Biden will pick it up, or be sufficiently mixed to where I’m not sure. If it is sufficiently mixed then I will keep it in the same column as it was in 2016. Essentially, I am testing the hypothesis that the result will be the same as in 2016 so I can either reject or fail to reject that hypothesis– with the added wrinkle I can also accept it.
I changed Maine as a whole to Likely Democrat and its one swing electoral vote to Leans Democrat. I also changed Texas to Safe Republican. Democrats have an advantage in that many of their expected electoral votes come from safe states that they don’t need to worry about appealing to. Republicans on the other hand are going to have to be offensive as possible, and if they are going to win almost half of their electoral votes will come from swing states. If the Republicans are going to make up for their loss of the Southwest (New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, soon to be Arizona, and later Texas) they must make up for it in the Rust Belt states (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio). Given the Republican trend in Florida, I believe the Republicans will win there. The Democrats lost their Senate seat and the Governor race there in 2018 despite it being a blue wave for Democrats nationally (Florida has not had two Republicans in the Senate since Reconstruction).